I stay with this Explore page.
coach_text Explore goals Goal, controls, KPIs and takeaway
ML2 / Explore
Make the hidden delay readable
SEIR becomes interesting when you stop looking only at the visible red wave and start reading what happens before it.
The key move in ML2 is this: the process can already be running while the visible red infectious wave still looks calm.
This Explore step is about understanding that the system can already be changing while infectiousness is not yet fully visible in the chart.
SEIR adds a hidden exposed phase. That is why the visible infection peak can arrive later than the internal build-up of the wave.
Read ML2 as a short sequence
- first the exposed phase E builds up in the background
- only later does that hidden build-up feed into the visible infectious wave I
- the delay between both peaks is not noise, it is the central reading task
If you can explain why the visible infection peak comes later than the exposed build-up, then this Explore step has already done important work.
Read two learning controls together with their model rates
In the guided variant you first learn the pair logic: duration produces γ, latency produces σ.
Read each row as a translation. Duration is the learner-facing control, γ is the model rate behind it. Latency is the learner-facing control, σ is the model rate behind it.
This is the first place where learning parameters and original model parameters are shown together on purpose. The task is not to memorise symbols, but to see that every open slider has a precise model partner.
Read the gap between the two peaks
In guided mode the KPI cards should help you name the delay, not just notice that the curves look different.
Peak E
Peak E · Highest E
Hidden build-up before infectiousness
This card shows how high the exposed phase grows before the visible infectious wave takes over.
Day(Peak E)
Peak E · E peak day
First timing marker
This day marks when the hidden phase reaches its maximum. It should usually come before the infectious peak.
Peak I
Peak I · Highest I
Visible infectious crest
This card tells you how strong the visible infectious wave becomes after the hidden phase feeds into it.
Day(Peak I)
Peak I · I peak day
Second timing marker
Compare this day with Peak E day. The gap between both days is the delay you want to explain.
What you should be able to say after this
If this Explore worked, you now read SEIR as a model with a hidden phase, not just as a different-looking wave.
You should be able to explain why the visible infectious wave can arrive later even though the process has already started in the exposed phase.
When this reading feels stable, the next sensible step later is Continue to Challenge.
SEIR Model · Wave pattern
S E I R
Day 0
t · Day now t · Day t
0
E · E now E · E now E
0.0 %
I · I now I · I now I
0.0 %
Rₑff · Rₑff now Rₑff · Now Rₑff
0.00
Peak E · Highest E Peak E Peak E
0.0 %
Peak E · E peak day Peak E · E day Peak E
0
Peak I · Highest I Peak I Peak I
0.0 %
Peak I · I peak day Peak I · I day Peak I
0