I stay with this Explore page and its model logic.
coach_text Explore goals Goal, controls, KPIs and takeaway
ML4 / Explore
Make outcomes explicit before moving on
SIRD changes the reading task because infection is no longer the only important line. Outcomes become visible in their own trajectory.
This Explore step is about connecting infectious burden, timing and severe outcomes instead of reading only the visible wave.
If the darker outcome line starts to change what the whole scenario means to you, then the Explore step is doing the right work.
Read the core controls first, then use the extra dials if needed
Fatality and mitigation are the core reading task. Academic mode additionally opens R₀ and duration for comparison.
The heart of this Explore is still the link between fatality and mitigation. The extra academic dials let you compare how outcome logic changes under different transmission conditions.
Fatality
What it changes
How much of the infectious burden ends in the death trajectory.
Watch for
Whether the darker outcome line rises even when the infectious wave itself looks familiar.
Mitigation
What it changes
How strongly the whole wave is damped before outcomes accumulate.
Watch for
Whether both infectious pressure and final burden soften together.
Academic extras
R₀ and Duration D
Use them when you want to compare how stronger transmission or longer infectious periods amplify the same outcome logic.
The playhead matters here. It helps you read the buildup over time instead of judging the model only from the final endpoint.
Use the KPI cards to connect wave and outcome
The KPI cards tell you whether the infection wave and the final burden are moving together or apart.
Peak I
The highest infectious share during the wave.
Peak day
When infectious pressure reaches its maximum.
Rₑff start
The initial transmission pressure after mitigation is applied.
D at the end
The cumulative fatal share at the selected horizon.
Good reading means: read peak and consequence together. A familiar infection wave can still imply a much heavier outcome once the death path is tracked explicitly.
What you should be able to say after this
If this Explore worked, you now read SIRD as a model of outcomes, not just infections.
You should be able to explain how outcome severity changes not only with transmission pressure, but also with how much of the infectious process turns into the final burden.
Once the core interactions are done, a quiet option can appear at the bottom right: Continue in Learning Journey.
SIRD Model · Mortality pattern
S I R D
Day 0
Peak I · Peak infectious share Peak I Peak I
0.0 %
Peak · Day of peak Peak · Peak day Peak
0
Rₑff (t=0) · At start Rₑff (t=0) · Start Rₑff (0)
0.00
D_end · D at the end D_end · D end D
0.0 %