I stay with this Explore page and its model logic.
coach_text Explore goals Goal, controls, KPIs and takeaway
ML5 / Explore
Read the familiar wave plus a new protection path
SIRV is useful when you stop reading only infections and start reading how protection grows inside the same system.
This Explore step is about seeing how the purple vaccination path bends the susceptible curve and takes pressure out of the red infectious wave.
If the outbreak no longer feels like infection and recovery alone, but like a system that is being reshaped by protection, then the Explore step is doing the right work.
Read rollout and efficacy before dragging them
In the academic variant you compare how fast protection grows and how effective that protection actually is.
The key comparison is between how quickly protection accumulates and how much of that protection actually works.
Rollout
What it changes
How quickly susceptible people move into the vaccinated path.
Watch for
Whether the purple line grows earlier and the red wave loses pressure sooner.
Efficacy VE
What it changes
How much of the vaccinated share actually acts like protection.
Watch for
Whether more vaccination also translates into a meaningful reduction of infectious pressure.
R₀, duration, initial protection and horizon stay fixed here so that rollout and efficacy can be read as the main intervention pair.
Use the KPI cards to connect protection and pressure
The KPI cards tell you whether the protection path is becoming strong enough to change the whole outbreak picture.
Peak I
The highest infectious share during the wave.
Peak day
When that infectious maximum arrives.
Protection at end
The vaccinated share weighted by efficacy at the selected horizon.
Rₑff end
How much transmission pressure remains after protection has accumulated.
Good reading means: connect the purple path to the red wave. Do not only say that vaccination grew. Say whether that growth actually reduced infectious pressure in a visible way.
What you should be able to say after this
If this Explore worked, you now read SIRV as a wave plus protection logic, not just as another line added to the chart.
You should be able to explain the difference between faster rollout and stronger efficacy, even when both increase the protected share.
When that reading feels stable, the next sensible step later is Continue in Learning Journey.
SIRV Model · Protection pattern
S I R V
Peak I · Peak infectious share Peak I Peak I
0.0 %
Peak · Day of peak Peak · Peak day Peak
0
V_eff · Effective protection at end V_eff · Protect. end V
0.0 %
Rₑff · At end Rₑff · End Rₑff
0.00