Challenge / Chloé / ML1 SIR
Keep the SIR wave early and proportionate.
coach_text Model view Start parameters, registry and assumptions
SIR / Challenge
Keep the SIR wave early and proportionate.
You are working for the Everytown Health Department. In Everytown, with around 350,000 residents, a new respiratory wave is beginning to rise.
The reference curve shows the outbreak without your Challenge decisions. Your mission curve changes only through the interventions you select.
The important comparison is not only the visible peak. The review also reads timing, total infections, pressure and the model state at the result horizon.
Read the outbreak trace
At the start this panel is locked to day 0. Later it opens at the current simulation day and lets you review only the observed past.
Day 0
observed up to day 0
No intervention active.
Rₑff will appear here.
Important distinction
R₀ is fixed as the reference. The open levers act on effective pathways such as beta_eff, vaccination_rate or E isolation.
What can change, what stays fixed?
The registry separates fixed model references from actual intervention pathways.
fixed
R₀ as fixed reference
The basic reproduction value describes the outbreak without intervention. It stays fixed as the reference in Challenge.
R₀ = β / γ
Interventions do not change R₀ itself; they change effective pathways such as β_eff, γ_eff or isolation.
can be changed
Effective transmission
Contact and protection measures lower effective transmission and therefore indirectly lower Rₑff.
β_eff = β * (1 - mitigation_eff / 100)
Contact and protection measures lower effective transmission and therefore indirectly lower Rₑff.
fixed
Capacity threshold
Evaluation and event target: the threshold controls warning, escalation and review.
threshold = mission.targets.peakMax
Evaluation and event target: the threshold controls warning, escalation and review.
Intervention set
Duration, pressure, effect path and formula.
Path Acts on β_eff and therefore indirectly on Rₑff.
Formula
βeff=β⋅(1−100meff)
meff=mbaseline+8PP(21days)
Model assumption In the dummy model, contact rules stand for a uniform reduction in effective everyday contacts. The effect runs with a delay through the changed contact term.
Path Acts on β_eff and therefore indirectly on Rₑff.
Formula
βeff=β⋅(1−100meff)
meff=mbaseline+16PP(21days)
Model assumption In the dummy model, the protection phase stands for fewer effective contacts in risk settings. The model path changes the contact term, not I directly.
Path Acts on β_eff and therefore indirectly on Rₑff.
Formula
βeff=β⋅(1−100meff)
meff=mbaseline+34PP(21days)
Model assumption In the dummy model, the emergency brake stands for a strong uniform reduction in effective contacts. This is a model assumption rather than detailed agent behaviour.
The end of the run is derived from your curve
The scenario has a minimum horizon, but the actual result horizon can move when interventions delay the wave.
The minimum horizon starts at 120 days. The runtime keeps a technical buffer up to about 480 days, so delayed waves can still settle.
After each decision, the live curve is simulated again. The result horizon is then derived from that live curve: the run ends only once the relevant compartments have settled enough for review.
This is why a successful delay may also make the run longer. Reference and mission are compared at the same result horizon.
ChloéENguidedguided
Chloé / Situation brief
The Everytown Health Department needs an early situation assessment.
Everytown has around 350,000 residents. Reports of a new respiratory virus have been rising for several days. Many affected people report fever, coughing and severe exhaustion.
Your task at the health department: protect as many people as possible from infection and give hospitals time before the wave reaches its peak.
Play the threshold directive automatically when the crisis window opens?
Ready
Day 0 / 120Start the mission and respond when a window opens. The goal is to protect people and buy time before the peak.
Currently ill
0
New cases 7 days
0
Until threshold
0
Before each decision, the health department task becomes readable in numbers here.
Your result
At the end, you see how many people your plan protected from infection, how far the peak shifted to the right and how much breathing room you created for hospitals and the health department.
0
At the end you see what your plan changed.
Score
0 / 100
Without measures
0
Peak 0
With your plan
0
Peak 0
S Susceptible
0.0 %
I Infectious
0.0 %
R Recovered
0.0 %
Situation before you decide
This shows how many people are affected right now, not just abstract percentages.
Currently sick
0
Sick so far
0
Recovered
0
Residents
0
What matters?
Protect people and shift the peak to the right
You decide for Everytown Health Department. A good plan protects early, flattens the peak and gives hospitals time.
Goal
Keep as few people ill at the same time as possible.
End
The run ends only once the situation visibly calms after the peak.
Available now
Interventions
After Situation briefing
Harder interventions
This intervention unlocks only after the capacity threshold.
- Containment management Emergency brake
Capacity notice · Asher
Hospitals need lead time
Show transcript
The latest reports from the NHS indicate that hospitals are preparing to expand treatment capacity and make additional beds available where needed. This requires careful planning and sufficient lead time. Every day we can delay the peak of infections gives the health system valuable time and strengthens the ability of hospitals and care providers to respond effectively.
Task
The health department expects an early response
Everytown Health Department · 350,000 residents
You are working at the Everytown Health Department. Everytown has around 350,000 residents, and reports of a new respiratory virus have been increasing over the past few days.
Your task is to read the situation early and slow the wave so that as many people as possible are not infected in the first place.
The red line remains important as background reference: beyond it, so many people are ill at the same time that the health department comes under heavy pressure. In this mission, it is just as important whether you shift the peak to the right and gain time.
What matters?
Protect people and shift the peak to the right
You decide for Everytown Health Department. A good plan protects early, flattens the peak and gives hospitals time.
Goal
Protect as many people as possible from infection and shift the peak to the right.
End
The run ends only once the situation visibly calms after the peak.
Situation briefing
Situation briefing at the health department
As long as fewer than 6.0% are ill at the same time, the harder tool remains locked. If this capacity threshold is crossed, leadership requests a new situation briefing.
Capacity notice · Asher
Hospitals need lead time
Show transcript
The latest reports from the NHS indicate that hospitals are preparing to expand treatment capacity and make additional beds available where needed. This requires careful planning and sufficient lead time. Every day we can delay the peak of infections gives the health system valuable time and strengthens the ability of hospitals and care providers to respond effectively.
Mission status
Mission ready
Success is not about maximum force, but about balancing effect and proportionality.
Your result
At the end, you see how many people your plan protected from infection, how far the peak shifted to the right and how much breathing room you created for hospitals and the health department.
0
At the end you see what your plan changed.
Score
0 / 100
Without measures
0
Peak 0
With your plan
0
Peak 0
Decisions
What you have chosen so far
- No decision yet.
Early window
Capacity window
Peak window
Day 0Day 120